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严守“房住不炒”,迎接“十四五”新机遇

发布日期:2021/7/1 14:20:54   |   浏览次数:1466   来源:特发地产-孙林晶

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展望未来,三大红利渐消退,但行业空间仍在。一是人口红利:人口增长率降低,城镇化率增长放缓,十四五期间,25-34岁的首次置业群体数量减少,由此可见人口带来的红利减弱;二是土地红利逐渐减弱:过去,土地红利来自于地价房价上涨的预期,当前房价上涨受限,房价与地价之间的差距逐步缩小,土地红利逐渐消失;三是金融红利逐渐消失,企业规模增长往往伴随杠杆的使用,在金融政策严监管下,企业所能享受的金融红利也在逐步消失。然而,新的赛道正在出现,两大新红利放大。一是城市群红利逐渐放大:十四五规划建议明确城市群建设方向,城市群是经济高质量发展的载体,对比发达国家,人口等资源向核心城市群聚集是必然趋势,城市群的红利将逐步放大;二是存量红利来临:实施城市更新行动、加强城镇老旧小区改造和社区建设是推进以人为核心的新型城镇化的核心内容,在新型城镇化推进进程中,助推企业向存量布局。

目前,企业已进入从规模增长转向质量发展的新跑道,需要房企根据企业基因、竞争优势和多元产业发展前景,聚焦“既促进主业,又适合自身”的多元化发展方向。2021 作为“十四五”开局之年,未来无论是物管、商业、租赁还是其他领域,都会给这个行业带来巨大的价值,房地产企业可考虑与以下四类企业合作:一是与有土地储备优势的企业合作,增加土储优势。当前拿地难度逐渐加大,有丰富土储的企业提前敲定了未来的货值和业绩规模,有利于降低风险,锁定利润,充裕低价的土地资源将是未来发展的保障;二是与具备独特资源背景的企业合作,比如国企资源、政府资源;三是与管理红利突出的企业合作,共享管理红利,比如成本管控能力突出、产品打造能力突出,从而增强产品竞争力;四是与多元化领先的企业合作,形成多元助力,加速多元化业务的布局,并且依靠多元化业务的技术和产品赋能自身项目的开发,提升地产开发的综合竞争力,并打造“第二”利润增长点。例如碧桂园并购华大农业,快速布局农业科技领域,万科收购普洛斯,跃居物流仓储领域的龙头企业。

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